Pattern completeness Incomplete *
PATTERN Category
summary Acknowledge that unknowns will remain and account for that.
Argumentation Oberlack et al 2019 : "ToCs help address attribution gaps, while acknowledging that unknowns will remain.
Virtually every initiative confronts factors beyond its control, for example concerning societal agreement or learning beyond the project’s reach. Moreover, outcomes frequently emerge from many concurrent dynamics and activities. Attribution of outcomes to a single project thus systematically faces an attribution gap. Without a ToC , discussions of impact may remain vague and the corresponding analysis may emphasize short-term results lacking transformative potential. ToCs can reduce, but not eliminate, the problem of causal attribution.
Create a space for in-depth discussion among project stakeholders about causal effects – stipulated in a mutually agreed ex ante ToC – supports deliberative evaluations of whether, how, and why a project had an impact as well as what other factors may have had an impact.
Discussion of impact pathways can be supported by a ToC that structures the analysis, and facilitates naming of unknowns as they crop up.
References source : Oberlack et al 2019